California’s proposed budget for the 2026-27 fiscal year will be in excess of $349 billion, but the state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office warns the state’s expenses will outpace income by as much as $18 billion this upcoming year. In January, the governor projected a modest shortfall of $2.9 billion. Then, in his updated budget, released in May, he claimed it would “eliminate the state’s projected deficit” by 2028.
The Pew Organization projected a deficit of $22 billion for 2028.
Why would a governor submit an unbalanced budget knowing it would result in a sizable budget shortfall? More cuts can be made to budget items including laying off state employees, as has been done several times since 2009. From March 2026 to April 2026, the state hired an additional 4,400 employees.
The state’s general fund budget is projecting a revenue loss from less personal income tax. Yet, the state has a belief that loss will be offset by higher tax revenues from sales, corporations, and alcoholic beverages. The state’s budget includes $300 million more in its Medi-Cal expenses for low-income individuals, including, as the governor stated, “undocumented immigrant adults.” He is proposing “tax cuts” for small businesses and claims the budget will include money for rebuilding the areas ravaged by the wildfires about two-and-a-half.
Newsom believes the state will have a “surge in tax revenues” which he claims is a “recent” discovery. That surge is because of higher taxes implemented upon businesses—that are leaving the state—and upon the rich, who are also leaving. With the decrease in personal income taxes, what “surge” is he expecting? Did the state “find” the lost billions in homeless money?
California’s 2025-26 negative balance leads the nation in states with the greatest deficits. Other states with significant shortfalls are Alaska, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania and New York. All states but Alaska have Democrat governors.
Newsom believes California will see a revenue increase over the next three years by as much as $16.5 billion but he doesn’t explain “how.” Perhaps, the successor to President Trump will reinstate the money cut because of the massive Medi-Cal fraud in California. Strangely, the state’s Legislative Analyst said California benefited from President Trump’s economic policies including lower inflation, a more robust job market and a thriving stock market.
California’s ever increasing minimum wage requirements has hurt the California job market with unemployment up since 2025. Future job growth is expected to further decline over the next couple of years possibly due to a weaking business climate, higher wages and an absence of qualified workers.
Lastly, Newsom and the Legislature are hiding significant expenses related to a growing deficit in the state employee retirement fund and state-issued bond investments that past due payouts, about $4.1 billion, are due to investors in the state.
Hocus pocus, right?
